Mets fans must be on cloud nine this morning with the news that, pending a physical, Johan Santana will be leading their rotation for the next six years at least.Â
The contract is reported to be worth a guaranteed $137.5million over six years (including 2008), with a club option for 2014 and a buyout of $5.5million.
At current conversion rates, that makes for a six-year deal worth £70million, or £224,359 per week. John Terry’s five year/£135,000 per week deal, the largest ever in English football and branded as “obscene†by Sports Minister Gerry Sutcliffe, looks like peanuts in comparison.Â
As reported at ESPN.com, adding on the buyout and possible incentives probably leaves you with a deal that guarantees $150million (£76.2m) in all. If his option year is taken up and matches the current average annual value of his deal (essentially $23m), you’re looking at something near $165m/£84m over seven years (factoring in possible incentives etc).
Mets GM Omar Minaya will need several World Series appearances (not to mention a World Championship) to justify the expenditure. However, that’s where this deal does enter the realms of sanity.Â
When San Francisco agreed to a $126m/seven year deal with Barry Zito twelve months ago, it was difficult to find many good things to say about Brian Sabean and the Giants’ Front Office. Zito is a dependable number-two style starter and the value of such an asset should not be underestimated, particularly when distinctly average back-of-the-rotation hurlers like Carlos Silva can receive multi-year deals on $12m a season. Yet Zito is no longer a number-one guy and is highly unlikely to add another Cy Young award to the one he won in 2002. The Giants themselves are a franchise that is very much in a state of flux. The Barry Bonds era may have brought many magical moments, but it didn’t produce a World Series championship and a period of rebuilding is undoubtedly needed to put them back into a position to challenge for honours. Zito’s first year wearing orange and black was uninspiring for both the player (11-13, 4.53 ERA) and the team (71-91, rock bottom in the NL West and nineteen games behind the division-winning D-Backs). The coming season doesn’t hold much promise either and perhaps the best the Giants can hope for is that Zito will be able to help them be competitive over the last few years of his contract, during which time his performances will not merit his $19m/$20m annual salaries.
That’s not much of a return on your investment.
The Mets have signed a starting pitcher recognised by all as one of the elite performers in the game today. Many even claim that he is the single best starting pitcher around and you would have a hard time arguing against them. Santana had a slight off-year in 2007, relatively speaking, but there’s every likelihood that he will revert back to his previous outstanding form. Add in the fact that he’s moving to the non-DH/’weak-hitting pitcher every nine at-bats’ league and installing him as an early favourite for the NL Cy Young is hardly going out on a limb. As for the Mets, even though they self-destructed at the end of last season and failed to reach the play-offs, they are clearly a strong outfit. Beltran, Reyes and Wright make for an enviable core of talent to build around over the next few seasons, while all baseball fans (Phillies and Braves excluded) surely will be hoping for a Pedro Martinez comeback after the majority of his 2007 season was wiped out by injury. John Maine also will be looking to build on a hugely impressive year during which he compiled a 15-10 record with a 3.91 ERA and produced some big-game performances that bellied his relative inexperience, not least his fourteen-strikeout victory over the Marlins on the penultimate day of the season. Installing Santana as the number one starter and shifting Pedro and Maine down to the second and third spots makes for a very strong rotation, one that will leave the Phillies in particular reconsidering their roster and possibly entering the trade market.
In 2007, the Giants brought in Zito and finished last. The Mets have made themselves the favourites to win their division at least, if not the favourites for the NL outright. More than anything, on paper they are arguably the only NL team who could now match up against the AL power houses. The short format of the World Series may make this less important in real terms, but as a sign of intent it is extremely clear. The Mets are gunning for the World Series and with Santana they’ve given themselves a great chance to achieve their aim, both in 2008 and for several years to come.
Yes, Santana could suffer an arm injury and the contract could end up being a millstone around the Mets’ neck (not to mention the consequences for Omar Minaya). No player is immune from injury, but you have to strike a balance between risk and reward. The Mets are in a strong position to contend even without Santana and have the financial muscle to afford the contract, particularly with the move to Citi Field in 2009. The player in question is not ‘above average’, he is a genuine elite pitcher and is a rare commodity; therefore you have to accept that he will command a long contract worth a lot of money. Barring some issues with bone chips, Johan’s fitness record warrants confidence that he can remain healthy as well.
Quite simply, the Mets have not been cheated here and Santana has not been over-paid. In the current market, it takes a 6 year/$137.5 million deal to acquire arguably the best starting pitcher in the game. The Mets have made the investment, they’ve got the player, and every other team in the Majors knows that they are going to be a serious contender for the World Series over the next six years.
