While there may be a limited number of genuine contenders in the AL, the National League is a different story. I make it three contenders in the East, four in the West and probably two in the Central, with the wildcard likely to come from either the East or the West.
NL East
This is a difficult division to call. The Phillies are defending their title, the Mets have signed the best starting pitcher in the game and the Braves will be more of a factor this season.
The Mets endured a horrendous collapse at the end of last season and some of the issues they faced (e.g. several ageing position players posing significant injury risks) could reoccur this time around. However, the rotation will be much stronger with Santana and Pedro Martinez and as such the roster has been upgraded. Willie Randolph and Omar Minaya are under immense pressure to produce the goods this season and an NLCS appearance is the minimum requirement if they want to be with the club at the opening of Citi Field in April 2009.
The Phillies figure to be a similar strength team to last year. Rowand and Lohse have been directly replaced in-house by Victorino and Myers (indirectly replaced by Geoff Jenkins and Brad Lidge) and the fearsome threesome of Howard, Utley and Rollins remain in place to power the offense. Lidge’s knee injury puts their closer plans on hold for the time being, but thankfully there has been no talk of moving Myers back into the role. He is too valuable for the Phillies as a starter to be held back for just 70 innings of work. They should win around 90 games again this year. If the Mets stay healthy, that might only be good enough for a shot at the wildcard. If the Mets run into a few problems, Philadelphia will retain their crown.
Atlanta are the outsiders and it’s fair to say that they will need the other two to slip up to let them in. With Smoltz and Hudson heading the rotation and premium hitters such as Mark Teixeira, Chipper Jones, Jeff Francouer and Brian McCann in the lineup, they have the core talent to compete. Whether the rest of the roster can pick up the slack is the unanswered question. If they are close at the trading deadline, we might see them trade for an impact player in an attempt to take advantage of what will probably be Teixeira’s final year with the club before he (deservedly) signs a huge free agent contract elsewhere in the off-season.
As for the other two, the Marlins have lost two more top players but may have finally got a deal in place for a new stadium. The Nationals move into their new home tonight and have brought in a couple of intriguing young players in Elijah Dukes and Lastings Milledge. These two teams may play a role in determining whether the wildcard comes from the East or the ultra-competitive West.
Predictions: 1) New York, 2) Philadelphia, 3) Atlanta, 4) Washington, 5) Florida.
NL Central
The Cubs have now gone 100 years without winning the World Series. Can this be the year that they break the Billy Goat curse? Getting past an AL team in the Fall Classic might be a step too far, but they should at least be playing baseball in October. The Cubs have a very solid roster and they are still looking to strengthen it by acquiring Brian Roberts from the Orioles. They might want to have a Plan B for the high likelihood that newly designated closer Kerry Wood will spend some time on the DL, but other than that they look well set to hold off the Brewers. Milwaukee have shifted a few players around (Hall to third, Braun to left field), seen a few leave (Jenkins, Cordero) and brought a few in (Gagne and Cameron). A full season from Ben Sheets and a quick and successful return from the DL by Gallardo would give them a chance against the Cubs, although neither are certainties.
The Reds have become something of a vogue pick and not just because of the ‘Dusty’ effect! (In fact some like the Reds despite the ‘Dusty’ effect) With their crop of prospects (Volquez, Cueto and Votto – with Jay Bruce and Homer Bailey likely to join them on the Major league roster soon) joined by quality performers such as Harang, Dunn and Griffey and a strong set-up man/closer unit (Weathers and Cordreo), they could spring a surprise.
The Astros have made a few moves under new GM Ed Wade, bringing in the likes of Tejada, Valverde, Bourne and Kaz Matsui (who starts the season on the DL). Their starting rotation behind Oswalt doesn’t inspire much confidence though. The Cardinals’ roster looks a mess right now with Mulder and Carpenter still out and there’s a chance that Albert Pujols might decide to have season-ending surgery on his elbow if/when they fall too far behind the leaders. The Pirates have been terrible for the last fifteen years and are a good bet to match the Phillies’ record of 16 consecutive losing seasons.
Predictions: 1) Chicago, 2) Milwaukee, 3) Cincinnati, 4) Houston, 5) St Louis, 6) Pittsburgh.
NL West
The Diamondbacks were something of a conundrum while winning the West last season, conceding twenty runs more than the scored. It’s perhaps surprising therefore that the Snakes decided to add more pitching rather than upgrading the offense, yet in the circumstances they may have got things right. The pitching they added came in the form of one of the top young starters in the game: Dan Haren, the A’s number one in ’07. Slotting him in behind Brandon Webb makes for as strong a 1-2 punch as there is in the Majors and, with Davis (who will be battling against thyroid cancer), Owings and possibly Randy Johnson, their rotation looks a real strength. Meanwhile, the offense in ’07 contained a number of young hitters (Chris Young, Conor Jackson, Mark Reynolds, Stephen Drew and Justin Upton) who can all be expected to improve this year. Put the two together and the ’08 D-Backs will be an improved team on the division-winning ’07 group.
The Rockies late-season surge was an incredible story that was only partly deflated by their 0-4 World Series sweep by the Red Sox. No one should expect them to repeat their crazy run down the stretch this year, but they shouldn’t be so far behind as to need to go 13-1 to force a play-off to make October anyway. Colorado have made very few changes to their roster over the off-season, with Matsui being the only regular bat to depart. As the majority of their players are either in their prime or at the start of their careers, there should be little risk of the Rockies going backwards.
The Padres and the Dodgers will be firmly in the running as well. San Diego have some excellent parts (not least reigning Cy Young winner Jake Peavy), but a projected outfield of Brian Giles, Jim Edmonds and Scott Hairston doesn’t look like a pennant winner. The Dodgers have Joe Torre at the helm of an exciting mix of potential young stars and veterans. Whether Torre can bring the two sides together could determine their fate as either a play-off team or an also-ran. The signing of Andruw Jones could turn out to be an inspired deal, although the presence of Juan Pierre on the left-side of the outfield is a reminder that GM Ned Colletti’s record on transactions and roster management is mixed to say the least. Starts from Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum apart, there will be nothing worth watching at AT&T Park this season. The Giants may even push the Pirates and Orioles in the ‘worst team in the Majors’ stakes.
Predictions: 1) Arizona, 2) Colorado (wildcard), 3) Los Angeles, 4) San Diego, 5) San Francisco.
