WBC: Semi-finals preview

Twelve down. Only four left. And the U.S. are out.

The WBC is reaching its climax, with the semi-finals taking place today (well, tonight and in the early hours of tomorrow morning for us) and the first ever Champion being crowned on Monday.

The semi-final draw highlights one area that could be improved upon in 2009 when the WBC will return. Teams have essentially been paired together as they move through the tournament. Rather than being separated, the top two in Pool A went through to Pool 1 of the second round to join the top two from Pool B (with the same sequence for the winners and runners-up of Pool’s C and D). In the semi-finals, the top two in Pool 1 (and the top two in Pool 2) will face each other yet again to see who gets to the final.

This arrangement has helped the inaugural tournament, creating an instant history for players and fans to feed off as nations collide again within a short period of time. However, the downside is that Korea and Japan will be facing each other for the third time on Saturday. It seems a bit strange to me, but I guess one-off, winner-takes-all games such as the semis and the final seem a bit unusual to American fans as well.

However strange one-off games might be to the U.S., there’s no doubt that they would love to be facing the challenge right now. In some ways their elimination wasn’t such a surprise. Whilst, I don’t think the U.S. were just a team of individuals, the roster as a whole didn’t really seem to click. When you combine that with the expectation levels, and the big target the U.S. had on their back (because you know every team raised their game even further to try and beat them, as many countries do against England in football), an upset was always on the cards.

As for the four teams left in the tournament, it’s difficult to predict who will emerge as the victor. All have reached the semi-finals on merit, and any of the four sides is capable of winning their next two games.

Korea vs Japan

Korea (to an extent) have been a surprise package. Winning all six of their Pool games is a notable achievement. In a normal world you would expect the team with the perfect record to stroll on to the end. Any sports fan knows that the unexpected is always around the corner though! Korea have looked a solid unit and certainly are playing well enough to win the tournament. The trouble is, when a team has won six games in a row you get a nagging sense that they are due a loss fairly soon. One bad performance and they are out. That puts a lot of pressure on the Koreans.

Korea have defeated Japan twice already, each time by just a one run margin in a low scoring game (3-2, 2-1). This will obviously give Korea a lot of confidence as they know they can beat them. Meanwhile Japan have an extra motivation to win this tie and to restore their bruised pride. I feel like I’m being a bit harsh on Korea here, but I’m leaning towards Japan edging another close match-up, just on the basis that Korea’s run has to come to an end at some point.

The Dominican Republic versus Cuba

The other semi-final looks set to be another great match-up. The Dominican Republic’s 7-3 victory over Cuba in the previous group stage was even more comprehensive than the score line suggests. Cuba were unable to cope with the power in the Dominican’s line-up which was not surprising given the batting talent they have. This time around, Cuba may have more of a chance in limiting their opponent’s score. Although they haven’t named their starting pitcher, it is likely that Yadel Marti will be given the opportunity to follow up his good start against Venezuela in the opening game of the previous round. Also in that game, Pedro Lazo followed Marti to the mound and pitched five very impressive innings. This workload made him unavailable for Cuba’s other Round 2 games, but he is now eligible to return to action and his potential battles with the likes of Tejada and Pujols will be well worth watching.

Cuba’s best chance of victory will be to keep the Dominican bats quiet (not an easy task!) and then try to take advantage against the bullpen once Bartolo Colon has finished his work. This was the approach they took against Venezuela (with Johan Santana starting) although this time around each team’s starter will have fifteen more pitches (95) before they reach their limit.

It promises to be a fascinating game. The Dominican Republic team is very strong whilst Cuba have some talented players and crucially have more experience playing as a team (and in these one-off games) than any other side in the tournament. I think the Dominican Republic will prove to be a bit too strong although once again it is a tough to pick a winner. Whatever the result, it will be an entertaining game full of intrigue, controversy (on and off the field), passion and excitement. First pitch is scheduled for just after 20:00 our time and I can’t wait! (N.B. The Korea-Japan match begins at 03:00 early tomorrow morning).

So, my pick is for a Japan-Dominican Republic final. No doubt I will be previewing a Championship decider between Korea-Cuba tomorrow!