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Rounding the Bases: National League review

by Matt Smith

MlbHlSqShout it from the rooftops: ‘Spring Training is here! Spring Training is here!’.   

We’ve been living on scraps for months, devouring transactions, both rumoured and consumated.  Hopes have been realized and dashed.  Some teams have acquired a Roy Halladay or a Matt Holliday.  Others have somehow ended up with a Carlos Silva. 

It’s time to review what each organization has done over the offseason to improve their team for 2010 by picking out the key addition and the key departure for every team.  I’ll look at the American League teams next Sunday, but I’ll start today with the Senior circuit. 

Arizona Diamondbacks

Their key addition is Edwin Jackson, who was acquired from the Detroit Tigers as part of a three-team trade that also included the Yankees. When it comes to their rotation, the Snakes know that Dan Haren will be anonymously fantastic yet again, but predicting how Brandon Webb will pitch after missing basically all of 2009 is much more problematic.  If Jackson can emulate his first half 2009 form for the whole season then Arizona will be in a very strong position.  He can be a decent replacement for Webb if the former Cy Young winner struggles at all, or he could give the D-Backs an intimidating 1-2-3 punch if Webb is back to his best.

Their key loss is the starting pitcher who went the other way in the Jackson deal: Max Scherzer.  He has great stuff and could be a real force if he reduces his tendency to dish out free passes.  Maybe he will never develop the control and command necessary to be a top-line starter or maybe something in his arm will go ‘ping’?  He might not turn into the pitcher he looks capable of being, but his potential is undoubted and the D-Backs will live to regret dealing him away if he comes good.

Atlanta Braves

A lot is riding on new recruit Troy Glaus, who was signed as a free agent.  The Braves have the pitching to contend, but their offense needs to function as well for them to be successful in Bobby Cox’s final year in charge.  They are counting on Glaus to provide much-needed power from the right side to complement Chipper Jones and Brian McCann in the heart of their batting order.  However, he was limited to just fourteen games down the stretch for the Cardinals last year due to injuries.  If he can play 150 games (likely fielding at first base for the majority) then the Braves will be in business.  If he spends more time on the Disabled List (DL), the Braves don’t appear to have much in the way of a back-up plan to rescue the situation.

Pitching has been Atlanta’s strong suit for many years and they look set to continue that trend in 2010; however, they will do so without their best starter from 2009.  Javier Vazquez was traded to the Yankees to solve the Braves’ ‘6 starters into 5 spots’ problem.  Trading from a surplus is always a good position to be in, but all it takes is an injury or two (such as Jair Jurrjens’ shoulder problems) and suddenly you can be left short.  Had they acquired an impact bat for Vazquez, a temporary hit to the rotation mid-season wouldn’t hurt so much.  As it is, they need Hudson, Jurrjens, Hanson, Kawakami and Lowe to stay healthy.

Chicago Cubs

Will the curse finally be reversed by the acquisition of Carlos Silva? Hmm, maybe not.  The Cubs’ primary addition was free agent outfielder Marlon Byrd.  Byrd will chip in with the bat and play a decent centre field.  No, that’s not going to make Cubs fans do cartwheels, but their team is paying the likes of Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez and Alfonso Soriano to drive the offense.  If the main guys can stay on the field and produce close to the previous top levels, Byrd’s steady contributions will be worth quite a bit to the team.  He also scores very highly in the ‘I’m not Milton Bradley’ stakes. 

I’m tempted to pick Milton as the Cubs’ key loss, not least because it wouldn’t surprise me if he had a strong season with the Mariners.  Reed Johnson was also thought of highly by the Cubs, so he will be missed.  However, I’ll go for Rich Harden, who departed as a free agent and signed with the Rangers.  He may be fragile, to say the least, but he can be a dominating starter and you are always going to miss someone like that, even if you don’t expect him to make 32 starts in a season.

Cincinnati Reds

The Reds unexpectedly made one of the biggest splashes of the offseason by signing Cuban free agent Aroldis Chapman to a six-year contract worth just over $30m.  The question now is whether the starting pitcher will be ready to make Cincinnati’s rotation straight out of Spring Training or if he needs to spend time in the Minors to hone his craft?  The Reds themselves probably don’t know the answer to that question just yet.  They will be watching his Spring Training performances closely, as will the rest of us, keen to see just how good this highly-touted prospect might turn out to be.

The most recognisable name of those who have passed through the Reds’ departure lounge this offseason is Willy Taveras.  He was traded to the Oakland A’s, who promptly designated him for assignment, so he can’t be considered much of a loss.  The player they will miss the most is starting pitcher Edinson Volquez.  He hasn’t left the organization, but he’ll be out until the latter part of the season (at best) while recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Colorado Rockies

The Rockies have had a quiet offseason and it’s difficult to call either Melvin Mora or Miguel Olivo a key addition, so the man to watch is Jeff Francis.  He missed all of 2009 after undergoing shoulder surgery and will make his return to the Rockies’ rotation hoping to recapture his 2007 form, when he went 17-9 and helped his team make the World Series.

Just as they haven’t had many new players to get excited about, Rockies fans were not bidding tearful farewells to anyone significant, unless a few among them had missed the last couple of seasons and thought that Garrett Atkins was still worthy of much attention.  If I have to pick someone (and I do) then their main loss would be Jason Marquis.  He picked up 15 wins for Colorado last year after being signed from the Cubs and had a solid if not spectacular season all told.  A healthy Francis should make replacing him a simple task.

Florida Marlins

Pass!  They’ve not done a lot in terms of adding new players to their roster, aside from small moves such as handing minor league deals to relievers Derrick Turnbow and Seth McClung.  The most significant decisions the Marlins have taken over the offseason have been signing ace pitcher Josh Johnson to a four-year contract extension and not trading second baseman Dan Uggla.

The Marlins finally decided to cut their ties with Jeremy Hermida after waiting for him to fulfil his potential since his debut as a 21 year old in 2005.  The Marlins didn’t like the look of his potential salary for 2010 (he was eligible for arbitration for the second time) and therefore traded him to the Red Sox where he figures to be their fourth outfielder.

Houston Astros

Brett Myers was signed as a free agent to join Roy Oswalt and Wandy Rodriguez at the sharp end of the Astros’ rotation.  Myers was a source of almost constant frustration to the Phillies.  The talent is there and he showed it at times, but too often something would come along and set him back once again.  If the Astros can find a way to keep him on the mound and to keep his head on the job, he could be an effective starter for them.

The Astros’ main loss over the offseason was closer Jose Valverde.  He was a free agent and although the Astros offered him arbitration, instead he signed a two-year deal with the Tigers worth $14m. 

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers went into hibernation over the winter, although there was a typically Hollywood storyline behind their inactivity: the continuing divorce saga of owner Frank McCourt.  Jamey Carroll is my pick of an average bunch of additions (Reed Johnson running him a close second) as his ability to play most fielding positions adequately will offer Joe Torre some flexibility over the course of the season.

The two most notable players to leave L.A. over the offseason were Orlando Hudson and Randy Wolf.  Considering the O-Dog spent the end of the season sitting on the bench with his tail between his legs, Wolf’s departure is the more important of the two.  Clayton Kershaw looks the real deal (8-8 with a 2.79 ERA at just 21 years of age), but there are question marks over the rest of the rotation (which Billingsley/ Padilla will show up? etc) and Wolf’s relative dependability will be missed.

Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers’ main objective over the offseason was to add some starting pitching as, Yovani Gallardo excepted, all of their starters had poor years in 2009.  They succeeded in signing Doug Davis and Randy Wolf as free agents, with the latter being signed to a three-year deal worth a shade under $30m.  That’s a bit rich considering Wolf is no star, but the Brewers’ desperate need for pitching made them pay slightly over the odds to get their man.  The dependable qualities that the Dodgers will miss are exactly what the Brewers were seeking and a steady season from Wolf will be a big improvement on what Milwaukee received last year from every starter not named Gallardo.

The Brewers said goodbye to several 2009 regulars, including shortstop J.J. Hardy and catcher Jason Kendall.  The one they might miss the most is centre fielder Mike Cameron, who signed with the Red Sox as a free agent.  It made sense for the Brewers not to outbid Boston’s two-year/$15.5m offer, particularly as they acquired Carlos Gomez from the Twins in the deal that brought Hardy’s time in Milwaukee to an end.  Still, no one’s sure quite how Gomez will develop and Cameron could be relied upon to field well in centre and hit 20+ homers, while providing leadership in the clubhouse. 

New York Mets

The Mets’ 2009 season was an unmitigated disaster.  Their collapse was mainly due to injuries, so they didn’t spend like mad over the offseason and will be greatly improved if the fallen (particularly Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran) are able to come back strongly.  Jason Bay was their main addition, joining as a free agent on a four-year/$66m contract.  Citi Field was like home run-reducing kryptonite to the Mets last year and Bay should counteract that.  He is a quality hitter and should be okay in left field.

The Mets didn’t lose a significant contributor from 2009, not least because they didn’t have many of those to lose in the first place.  Of the players that have left, Carlos Delgado leaves the biggest hole because there is a big drop off from his best form and what Daniel Murphy is likely to offer the team (if he sticks at first base for long anyway).  However, Delgado missed all but 26 games last year and has recently had surgery on his hip, which will keep him out of action for four months.

Philadelphia Phillies

I didn’t need much thinking time on this one.  Roy Halladay is as good as it gets when it comes to current Major League starters.  His record over the past five years is 81-37 with a 3.01 ERA and that’s while playing in the American League and in a division that includes the Yankees and Red Sox.  You would expect him to dominate even more when moved to the National League, facing a pitcher every nine plate-appearances rather than a DH.  There’s no need for hype: this is the very definition of an impact signing and it helps to give the Phillies a genuine shot at making a third World Series in a row.

This is being a bit greedy, but the Phillies would have had an even bigger shot at getting to (and winning) the Fall Classic again had they kept hold of Cliff Lee as well.  Much has been written about GM Ruben Amaro Jr’s decision to trade Lee to the Mariners in an apparent attempt to boost the Phillies’ farm system.  Maybe there is more to it that that, because you would think that Amaro would have kept both if he thought it was possible.  Given the choice, and what a choice it would be, most people would pick Halladay over Lee so it still amounts to an upgrade, especially when you consider the very reasonable multi-year contract Halladay signed upon joining the Phillies.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh’s current (or ‘never ending’) rebuilding project means that they are not in the market for too many Major League additions.  They have made a few moves over the offseason and the best player they acquired is Akinori Iwamura.  The second baseman suffered a terrible injury playing with the Rays last year, but he managed to get back out on to the field for the final month and he should be good to go for the Pirates right from opening day. 

The Pirates really aren’t living up to their nickname.  They should be the ones plundering everyone else for talented players, not giving away any experienced player they possess.  That’s what they’ve done over the last couple of years, although in truth they haven’t given up anyone of tremendous value. Their closer Matt Capps was the latest main player to leave the team, with the Buccos choosing to cut him over the offseason rather than pay his 2010 salary.  Capps landed with the Nationals.

St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals almost had to re-sign Matt Holliday.  After being acquired in a mid-season trade with the A’s, Holliday hit .353/.419/.604 with 13 homers in 63 games for St Louis.  He was immediately installed as the number four hitter in the lineup behind Albert Pujols, making for as formidable a 3-4 partnership as there is in the Majors.  Holliday was a free agent over the offseason and the Cardinals didn’t just think about what they would gain by re-signing him, but also what they would lose if they didn’t.  That’s perhaps why they agreed to such a lucrative contract (7 years/$120m) despite reports suggesting that no other team came close matching it.  It might not like like such a good idea 5 or 6 years down the line, but he’s a big addition for the 2010 season.

The Cardinals’ main loss over the offseason was starting pitcher Joel Pineiro, who departed as a free agent and signed with the Angels.  He had his best year since 2003 for the Cardinals in 2009.  There’s no guarantee that he will repeat it in 2010, but the pitchers scheduled to be in the Card’s rotation that are not named Carpenter and Wainwright (Kyle Lohse, Brad Penny and A.N. Other) don’t look a great bet to match Pineiro’s 2009 season either. 

San Diego Padres

The Padres are in rebuilding mode so they tinkered around the edges, bringing in a pair of Hairstons and Yorvit Torrealba among others.  Starting pitcher Jon Garland could prove to be their key free agent signing of the offseason.  He’s durable, pitching at least 32 starts in each of his last 8 seasons, and has had success before, most notably winning 18 games in back-to-back seasons over 2005 and 2006.  If that history can be smartened up thanks to the cosy confines of Petco Park and a bit of luck in the win column, the Padres might be able to nab a prospect or two for him come the trade deadline.

However, Garland will not be the Padre most people will be looking at in August.  First baseman Adrian Gonzalez is the prize other teams covet the most, with the Red Sox in particular being flirtatious with the Friars over the offseason.  Gonzalez’s very reasonable contract means that he’s still in San Diego for the time being, so the key loss has either got to be Brian Giles or Kevin Kouzmanoff.  From a sentimental point of view, Giles will be the player they will miss the most, but Kouzmanoff’s greater contributions over the last couple of years earn him the prize following his trade to the A’s.

San Francisco Giants

Giants fans would love me to be able to put someone like Matt Holliday’s name down as their key addition, but those dreams were not realized.  AT&T Park will once again be home to some outstanding pitching and a below-average batting lineup as General Manager Brian Sabean failed to make any significant signings to boost the Giants’ offense.  Mark DeRosa was a decent signing and he will add a bit of power to a lineup that sorely needs it; however, his main value is as a good hitting infielder, not as an everyday left fielder.  Unfortunately that’s where he looks set to play the majority of his games, so the initial benefits of adding him to the roster have been reduced.

San Francisco’s main offseason loss will be the 2015 Hall of Fame’s gain.  Randy Johnson decided to retire and in doing so set the five-year clock ticking on his certain election to Cooperstown at the first attempt.  Calling him a loss to the 2010 Giants is perhaps a bit of a stretch as he only started 17 games last year and it always looked likely that he would call it a day after the season.  However, if he had been healthy and willing enough to take the mound on limited duty, his contributions are likely to have outweighed what other fellow former Giants (Randy Winn, Ryan Garko etc) could have mustered.

Washington Nationals

There’s no getting away from the fact that all eyes will be on pitching prospect Stephen Strasburg at the Nationals’ Spring Training camp, rather than any of their offseason additions.  Jason Marquis was signed as a free agent and he at least brings experience and history of some Big League success, although his run of making the postseason each year will come to an end in 2010 unless he gets traded.  The other guy that might make a notable contribution is Ivan Rodriguez. As a 38 year old catcher, ‘Pudge’ clearly isn’t the player he once was, but perhaps he will prove to be a source of knowledge and inspiration to his younger roster mates.

Has an old country singer ever sang “if you’ve got nothing to lose, you’ve got nothing to lose”?  If they have and you can find a YouTube clip of it, let me know and I’ll post a link here under ‘notable departures from the  Nationals 2009/10’.  I guess you could say Austin Kearns and Dimitri Young are notable departures in the sense that the Nationals are glad to be shot of them.  And the clown (former GM Jim Bowden) who signed them.

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9 comments

Joe Cooter February 21, 2010 - 1:01 pm

A few observations.

1. The mets didn’t make many additions in the off season and didn’t add to what is considered at best a So So starting Rotation. They didn’t get somebody to go in the rotation after JOhan Santana. And they really needed too. This situation kind of reminds me of the old Boston braves when they two really good starters in Warren Spahn and Johnny Sain and the rest of the rotation was shakey. The saying kind of went like this “Spahn and Sain and pray for rain.” That’s what its kind of like for the Mets right now. They’re praying for rain..

2. THe most interesting pick for the D-backs this year could be Ian Kennedy who was also aquired in the treeway deal with Detriot and the Yankees. The last couple of years Kennedy has spent primarily on the disabled list. When he did pitch, he didn’t pitch very well and gained something of a reputation of being a whiner because he tended to blame everyone else for his failure. This didn’t go over well with the Yankees.

3. I am probably not going to see the Doc Halliday trade as much of an upgrade for the Phillies because they traded on Ace for another and didn’t add another strong starter. I don’t think Hamels will be able to achieve what he did id 2008 in part because he was over worked. The rest of there Rotation is good but not late. Jamie Moyer looks to be in his final year as a player, and could jion his father in law Digger Phelps (who analyized College Basketball) as an Analysist at ESPN.

4. I’m surprised the Giants didn’t add any protection for Kung Fu Panda. I think they really needed to because this division could be had because the Dodgers were sort of handcuffed by the McCourt Divorce case and California’s wonderfulll community property law.

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Steve Keene February 21, 2010 - 3:29 pm

Great write-up Matt.

I think the Halladay deal highlights a Phillies side that has managed to strike the balance between being competitive for the coming season, and building for the future. They should be there, or there abouts for the play-offs, even without Cliff Lee, yet know that their farm system will help them in years to come. It’s a pretty strong position to be in.

I could well be proved very wrong though! And that’s the beauty of the senior circuit this year – there are so many ifs and buts to condider that it makes things potentially very open.

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Matt Smith February 21, 2010 - 4:17 pm

Joe – Ian Kennedy is seen as an afterthought in that trade, but I think he might work out to be a serviceable starter. I hope so, if only so that we can keep watching his ‘vulcan’ changeup! Cole Hamels is an interesting one because he really was worked hard in 2008, but then when you look below the main stats and read the thoughts of people who saw him game in, game out in 2009, it’s clear that he also ran into a fair bit of bad luck (hits barely getting past infielders etc) last season. A new season means he’ll start with a clean slate and maybe that will make the difference. It’s a bit like Robinson Cano in 2008, sometimes you get stuck in a rut and then make things worse by trying too hard to get out of it during the season.

Steve – having an eye on the present and the future is definitely the way to go if you can afford it (and the Phillies should be able to). The question in this case is whether the prospects they acquired are really going to make a difference. Only time will tell.

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Joe Cooter February 21, 2010 - 7:09 pm

One thing I’m sure we won’t see this Year is Steven Strassburg. I know he’s the much hyped super prospect of the Nationals. I don’t think he’ll be playing in the Big leagues this year. I think the Senators would be wise to keep him hear in Syracuse for the entire yeaar where he doesn’t have to face the same kind of pressure.

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Owen February 21, 2010 - 8:31 pm

From seeing Strassburg pitch in person I see no reason why he will not be in the Bigs. He is with the worst team in Baseball and they need to sell tickets. Also is he worse than the starting 5 they currently have?

Strassburg will get pressure even in AAA. I have never seen the Fall League like it. Mad security and autograph seekers where ever Strassburg was. If anyone wants a signed 16×12 by this guy lmk.

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Matt Smith February 21, 2010 - 10:06 pm

Clubs tend to pay a lot of attention to ‘starting the service time clock’ nowadays, and rightfully so. Ability-wise Strasburg would probably make the rotation right now, but I expect they will keep him in the Minors until later in the season so that this will not count as ‘year 1’ of his Major league service time. No doubt they’ll also limit his workload.

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Chico February 22, 2010 - 7:14 pm

Look for the Cubs to continue its futility as they try to win a World Series. 102 years and counting with very little hope of winning the Central division, let alone even making the post season. The Cubs have the gall to encourage the Arizona state legislature to try to pass a bill for a new spring training complex in Mesa PARTIALLY FUNDED by raising spring training prices by $1 a ticket at ALL spring training games!! All 14 other teams that train in Arizona are against the proposal. The argument for the ticket increase is that the Cubs draw a majority of the fans to spring training anyway. That’s like having the Milwaukee Brewers raise their ticket prices so the Cubs can take that increase and build a new ballpark in Chicago because the Cubs are more popular. As long as the Cubs draw fans because of a tourist attraction (crumbling and falling down Wrigley field) that is the world’s largest outdoor bar attended by fraternity and sorerity boys and girls (who know very little about baseball, they will be happy. Being a century old loser does have it’s benefits. Look for the Cardinals followed by the Brewers in the Central. The cute “Cubbies” will sell out many games again and finish fourth. Also look for the Cubs to move to Florida for spring training. Arizona spring training baseball will be just fine without them.

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Owen February 22, 2010 - 9:40 pm

To be fair the Cubs do have a huge drawing to Arizona. Ho Ho Kam is sold out most days with only spare space out on the lawn. The complex has no real boxes as such to generate money and the players can only use one field. The minor league complex down the road at Fitch is really old and I think that is one of the main issues.
The Cubs generate a huge amount of money for the Mesa community.

I would be happy to pay extra for my tickets if it took the Brewers out of Spring Training in Maryvale. Worst neighbourhood in town.

Have been very impressed with the new complex which was built for the Dodgers in Glendale and the changes made to the Giants complex in Scottsdale.

Spring Training is a must for any baseball fan.

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BaseballGB » Rounding the Bases: American League review February 28, 2010 - 1:02 pm

[…] finally found jobs this week.  A couple of those moves will be taken into account as we follow up last week’s review of National League moves by looking at the key addition and key departure for each team in the […]

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