Weekly Hit Ground Ball: The MLB trade deadline

Just two weeks ago, it looked like this year’s MLB non-waiver trade deadline wouldn’t offer us much drama.  Aside from a couple of free-agents-to-be finding a new home and some minor deals, little else seemed in the offing.

Instead, teams competed to make additions that they hope will make the difference both in getting to the postseason and then winning when they are there.

The San Francisco Giants’ capture of Carlos Beltran, officially announced on Thursday, sparked off some frantic action as the Sunday’s deadline zoomed into view. 

The deal could have been the final true headline-grabbing act.  Beltran was the best potential bat on the market and it was possible that the other main contenders in the National League keen on adding a quality hitter, particularly the Phillies and Braves, might accept that a big upgrade was no longer out there and settle on a minor deal or two. 

However, the Phillies and Braves were determined to improve their offensive options.  The Braves acted on Sunday by acquiring speedster Michael Bourn from the Astros – a good acquisition for the Braves – but that was in part due to Atlanta failing to come to an agreement with Houston over another outfielder. 

In this column last Monday, I expressed my doubts that the rumours surrounding two National League players would turn into actual trades:

I would be very surprised if two of the more-touted names from the National League are actually dealt.  The Ubaldo Jimenez situation has all the hallmarks of a team putting feelers out just in case someone is willing to blow them away with an offer they couldn’t refuse.  As for Hunter Pence, I suspect the Astros value him more highly than other team.  

Now, I didn’t write that they wouldn’t be traded, so technically I wasn’t wrong; however I genuinely didn’t believe they would be dealt.  That makes it all the more interesting to look at why they were.

In Pence’s case, my doubts were partly created by the Astros’ form over the past few years in holding on to players rather than making the decision to rebuild properly. 

Pence was a real fan favourite and Astros supporters have every reason to feel disappointed that he is no longer on their team, but they also know better than anyone that the team wasn’t going anywhere with him anyway.  It was the right decision to move Pence and look to the future.  The question then was which team would meet the Astros’ apparently realistic valuation?

While the Phillies have the best record in the Majors, their goal is to win another World Series and their offence needed a boost.  Their General Manager Ruben Amaro Jr is not exactly shy about making ‘win now’ trades so we shouldn’t be surprised that he was the one to make the deal happen. 

Pence will make a very good team even stronger.  He will take over in right-field and typically slot into the fifth batting spot behind Ryan Howard, a good complementary part of the lineup rather than hitting in the clean-up spot as he was with the Astros. 

The Phillies already looked a solid bet to win the NL East and in the short-series format that makes up the playoffs, any team is vulnerable to being turned over.  That doesn’t mean they should bypass the opportunity to strengthen if possible, though.  They didn’t have to add a good everyday player, but the fact that they did makes them even more formidable.

As for Ubaldo Jimenez, I doubted that he would be traded simply because I didn’t believe the Rockies wanted to part with their best pitcher.  I’m still not sure why they’ve decided to do so. 

2011 has been a disappointment; however the Rockies have a good group of players and no team looks set to dominate the NL West in the near future.  Had they kept hold of Jimenez and added a few players, there’s every chance they would be back competing for the division next year.  He was under contract for at least another two seasons at a very affordable price, so there was no pressing need to trade him now. 

It’s slightly baffling and you suspect that teams looking at trading for Jimenez thought the same thing: why are the Rockies willing to trade him?  His relative struggles this year compared to last, accompanied by a drop in velocity on his fastball, have raised concerns about a possible injury or mechanical issues.  Only time will tell if the Rockies knew something we all didn’t.

I was surprised when I logged onto MLB.com at breakfast on Sunday morning to read that Jimenez had indeed been traded and stunned by the identity of the team that he had been traded to. 

I didn’t take the rumours linking the Cleveland Indians with Jimenez too seriously.  Their current situation simply didn’t appear to match up with a position where they would trade for one of the better starting pitchers in the game.

To my mind, they have overachieved by still being in the AL Central race at this stage in the season.  They have some talented players, but you wouldn’t necessarily look at their roster and think they are one key addition away from having a real chance.  The Rockies were only going to trade Jimenez if they received several highly-touted prospects in return and, as a team with a relatively low payroll, the Indians are exactly the type of team that needs to keep hold of promising young players under club control.

So why have they done it?  Two reasons come to mind.

Firstly, and to state the obvious, they must feel they have a genuine chance of winning the AL Central this year with Jimenez in the mix.  While teams should be cautious about mortgaging the future for short-term gain, they should never take a chance to win for granted.  Nobody can predict the future and banking on winning with prospects three or four years down the line is dangerous because any number of things could derail those plans.  And while the Indians might not look the most threatening of teams, we all know that once you’re in the playoffs, anything is possible.

Secondly, the key with this deal is that although the Indians have traded away some well-regarded pitching prospects in Alex White and Drew Pomeranz, this isn’t simply a ‘win now’ move.  If the team doesn’t make it to the postseason this year then Jimenez will still be under contract for the next two seasons at an affordable price.  They’re taking a gamble on him regaining his previous top form, but if he does and the Indians don’t contend in the first half of next season then they will still be able to trade Jimenez and re-stock the farm system to cover the players they’ve just lost.

Fans always want their team to make a move or two at the deadline.  Often, it can take several years for us to evaluate how a trade has worked out, so after all of the deals over the last few days we shouldn’t be too hasty about assigning the tags of winners and losers.

After seeing the likes of CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee depart in recent years, fans of the Tribe deserve to enjoy their team trading for a top-line starter rather than trading one away.  It will be fascinating to see whether the initial joy at the news turns into something positive for Cleveland, just as it will be for every other team involved in deals at the deadline.